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4M-4.5M would be my upper end IMO, 5M would be insane.
If it does those kinds of numbers in December it'll probably be sold out and I think Sony can ship 22M by the end of the year, so the sales by the end of 2014 could be 22M, Sony would be happy.

I think well over 17M is likely by the end of this month, maybe 17.5M.

If Sony announces they'll have shipped 23M by the end of the year 22M sales is guaranteed IMO.