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S.T.A.G.E. said:
padib said:

It's definitely an interesting analysis but the part I argued you didn't address. What happens to the regional discrepancies, they poke big holes in your theory.

Just analyze US for example.

You didnt find any holes in my theory. I agreed with you that MS took a chunk out of the N64's marketshare, but you still got the numbers wrong and it had nothing to do with Rare. Rare was purchased by MS a year after Halo came out and Rare had completed their final game for Nintendo in the same year of the purchase. When the Stamper Brothers left Rare they left the name and the IP's but the heart and soul of Rare was truly gone and the key developers in Rare who created Goldeneye left to Free Radical which is why Timesplitters plays so close to Goldeneye. Of course once Halo came out people werent really impressed, but the GC and PS2 at least had  decent shooter. If MS had an ounce of creativity Rare would still be a thriving company today, but no...they are second rate now. No direction at all. 

As for these points...

"Related is the fact that the sales for the twins in the US exceeded by far the sales of the PS2:

PosPlatformNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 PlayStation 2 (PS2) 53.65 55.28 23.18 25.57 157.68
6 PlayStation 3 (PS3) 28.56 32.98 10.05 11.39 82.98
7 Xbox 360 (X360) 47.25 25.23 1.66 8.45 82.59

twins total in US = 76M vs 53.65M for PS2."

1) You never read what I wrote properly. I attributed almost half of Sony's marketshare loss to Microsoft since the numbers came up to that. The last bit went to the Nintendo Wii.

2) Japan's interest in the console market is dwindling. They are mainly focused on handhelds


As for this...

"Another thing, the latest argument for TLOU:R is that many PS4 fans don't own PS3s. If that's true, then it seems like there is a lot more movement than we like to think. Some start gaming, some stop, we really have no idea what happens to owners between gens."

That is true for any console. Only a portion of the crowd buys the exclusives. Rarely is it ever at extremely high percentages attached to console sales like the Wii Sports bundles. Wii Sports was the game every non-gamer and their grandmother wanted to play.

It still doesn't explain the regional numbers in light of your theory. In US:

How does half of PS2 (53.65M / 2 =~ 27M) become 47.25M (Microsoft's marketshare in US)?