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After Destiny is released and thru the holidays, I think PS4 will have about a 2-to-1 advantage for NPD hardware sales.  Also, with imminent releases of various 3rd party games that are superior on the PS4, the momentum of the PS4 hardware sales advantage will be carried for a long time.

I'm assuming Halo 5 will be release for holiday 2015 (Oct/Nov).  If Uncharted 4 is released within a month from Halo 5, Xbox1 definitely will not win NPD.  Even without Uncharted 4, I think it'll be close, but holiday releases are crowded with too many games and Halo 5 won't be enough to win NPD.