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Let the predicting begin! 

Pachter:

Entertainment Software: May 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 16% Sales Growth

o We expect May sales of $333 million (up 16% compared to May 2006’s $286 million). We expect next generation software sales of $228 million and current-generation software sales of $105 million. Our estimates include $73 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of around 2.75 units for each
hardware unit sold (400,000 Wii plus 100,000 PS3).

We expect May sales to be driven by recent releases Nintendo’s Pokemon Diamond/Pearl and Activision’s Guitar Hero II and Spider-Man 3, along with new release Activision’s Shrek the Third (PS2, 360, Wii, DS, GBA, PC), Microsoft’s Forza Motorsport 2 (360), and Nintendo’s Mario Party 8 (Wii).

o Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 400,000
PS3 100,000
Xbox 360 225,000
PS2 250,000
PSP 175,000
DS 475,000
GBA 75,000

o Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $80 million, down 22% compared to last year. We project a more modest decline than last month's -49%, as a strong slate of mass-market titles was released in May.

o Sales growth over the last 11 months is a robust 15%, although last month's sales declined -1%. We expect volatile sales throughout the summer, as sales comparisons get tougher in June and remain tough until the holidays.

o However, we continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.
 
AprilPachter (USA)April USApril CanApril totalVgc April
DS450,000471,00035,000506,000580,000
Wii300,000360,00042,000402,000336,000
PS2250,000194,00018,000212,000247,000
PSP200,000183,00012,000195,000208,000
Xbox 360175,000174,00013,000187,000197,000
PS3100,00082,0007,00089,000107,000
      
MayPachter (USA)May USMay CanMay totalVgc May
DS475,000   549,000
Wii400,000   397,000
Xbox 360225,000   237,000
PS2250,000   227,000
PSP175,000   163,000
PS3100,000   73,000
 Here are my stories on expected NPD numbers for hardware & software, each includes a 10% margin of error for direct comparison of NPD to VGChartz for USA & Canada combined over the four week period.


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