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Aura7541 on 05 June 2014
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TheDrill said:
Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
Shadow1980 said:

I don't doubt that the XBO will get some kind of boost, but as I explained the other day there are many reasons to think that the boost will not be significant enough for it the pass the PS4 in average monthly sales, which it would need to in order to catch up with and then pass the PS4 in LTD sales. There is simply no historical precedent for a price cut (which the Kinect-less SKU technically isn't) to provide a boost in sales of the degree and duration needed for the XBO to go from barely over 115k to over what the PS4 has been doing on average. The odds of it closing the average monthly gap between itself and the PS4, much less having a comfortable enough lead to rapidly close the LTD gap, is extremely low. MS is either going to have to get the XBO below the PS4 in price (and hope Sony doesn't follow suit with a price cut of their own) or they'll have to offer a lineup of exclusives that blows everything Sony has out of the water. There's very little difference between the two systems as they share 90% of the same games and have very similar capabilities, so it's going to come down to pricing and exclusive games. The XBO could surpass the PS4 in the months that Halo 5 and (possibly) Gears come out, but it's going to need more than that for a consistently strong performance. Individual games only ever offer short-term gains, after all.


Dont forget that I am talking about the US, last generation X360 decimated the PS3 in US and in the UK.

Microsoft has a lot of money to push into X1, furthermore software wise they can potentially buy exclusives, and Halo and Gears of war is a system seller.

At the current rate, as I have said, it would take only an average perhaps 15k increase per week to catch up in the US with Sony in a few months, that is not unrealistic, and it will grow more if Sony sells less units.

Bolded: Clearly, you did not read my post from earier: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6360669

Italics: Those games are lightyears away from their release dates. Two games are hardly enough to combat the PS4's superior multiplats and exclusives.

Underline: Again, you did not read my post from the link above. Also, you stealthly changed from X1 needing to outsell the PS4 by 10k weekly to 15k weekly. Even then, 28 weeks x 15k = 420k. That's less than the 600+k gap (500k gap when you add up all NPD results + 100+k estimate from May). Actually, I think the gap for May will be a lot greater than 100k. Watch Dogs gave the PS4 a much greater boost, so the gap could be 200k, making the overall gap 700k.

You also should clink on this link (http://dealnews.com/features/State-of-Gaming-2014-PC-Gaming-Is-on-the-Rise/1062249.html ). Only 79% of the people are still not interested in buying an X1 @ $399. 43% of the Xbox 360 users have not bought a next gen console because of price and of those 360 owners, 58% are still not interested in buying an X1. Not looking good for the X1...

At the time I made the prediction it only needed 10k weekly.

43 % of those X360 users are going to buy a next gen console when X1 price cuts.

The 10k weekly tagline was wrong from the beginning. X1 needed to outsell the PS4 weekly by an even greater margin at the time you made your prediction. Your prediction will never come true because the PS4 will outsell the X1 by great margins when Driveclub and Destiny releases later this year. The PS4 might get some boost in the US when Samurai Warriors 4 and Guilty Gears come out, too. Did you not read carefully enough from the survey? 43% of 360 users did not buy a next-gen console yet. Of those 43%, 58% are still not interested in buying an X1. That means that only 18% (multiply 43% by 0.42) of the 360 users who have not bought a next-gen console are interested in buying an X1. That is horrendously bad.