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I think Nintendo fans may want to enjoy their Wii U while it lasts, because there probably isn't a successor to it coming in a traditional sense, not because Nintendo feels obligated to support the system for X amount of years, but moreso because they will have little interest in continuing forward in the console space. I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft bails out of the console biz too after this gen. Sony will likely be the only one left that's really strongly attached to the idea of a traditional home console, most because they have the most to lose. Nintendo's console audience has basically whittled away into such a small niche that they won't really miss it, they'll just roll that audience into their handheld base and let future handhelds run games on the TV. Nintendo's not in this business to provide support to platforms that sell a paltry 3 millions units/year, the Wii U will be supported through 2015 just to keep the fans happy, but I think behind the scenes they're already well underway in focusing on different hardware pillars which will actually be the future of their business (for their sake they better hope that QOL thing takes off). |
People have been making these kinds of assumptions for several generations.
It ultimately comes down to whether the company in question really believe they can spark people's interest again, and justify the need for a box too big to be carried around.
Nintendo has never included ethernet plugs on their consoles, so they just might be the first to go all handheld and wireless. Though it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a new mysterious nameless Nintendo box at E3 2016.
Microsoft is gaining too much goodwill on the American home market from Xbox to drop out. They certainly aren't loosing any substantial amount of money on the project anyway. Nothing that can't be covred by what they make on selling Microsoft branded PC accessories anyway.
As you say, Sony may have the most to lose, with PlayStation being their most popular brand, and they usually find a way to excite people, so I think they'll stay around.
