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I'm 60/40 in favor of the Xbox One, since America loves the Xbox brand (just look at X360 vs. PS3), and they love shooters (Halo and Gears of War), however Sony is doing great when you compare to X360 vs. PS3, and you never know what they'll pull out of their hat.
I think in the end the Xbox One will win in America in terms of sales, but not with as much at the gap between the Xbox 360 and the Playstation 3. However, if Playstation 4 defeats the Xbox One in America this gen, I think Microsoft might consider selling the division. Losing America would be one of the most painfull things that can happen to the Xbox brand.