I just said that the Smash audience is comprised of Nintendo fans, nothing about them being only that. You can indeed be a Metal Gear fan and a Nintendo one, they're not mutually exclusive. Still, how good are those odds when the franchise regularly ignores said platforms like the plague ? When even Xbox and PC get the games before them ? The lack of exposure makes it more unlikely to get fans there, and Konami/Kojima don't seem to have much intention to change that. They themselves seem to think the audience is not a good match for the franchise, so why should Nintendo/Sakurai feel differently ?
The criteria to choose these characters will always be arguable, but it would be ridiculous to argue that Snake is just as much tied to Nintendo platforms as Mega Man. Mega Man (classic) has appeared on at least 16 games by my count on Nintendo platforms, not counting late ports (anniversary collection, etc), and his first 7 main games (and Rockman and Forte) were originally on Nintendo platforms exclusively. That's a strong presence. The fact that 9 and 10 weren't exclusive doesn't matter as much here, because it was still there at the same time, unlike every new main Solid game. And he was very well received. I don't know where you got the idea that Snake was more hyped... That's not my impression.
Whether Simon is less popular than Alucard or not, I don't know, but I do know that he's fondly remembered by many Nintendo fans from his NES, GB and SNES appearances, and he has been on far more around as much or more games as Alucard. Either way, he would be the best rep for Castlevania on Smash, a franchise that has always being close to Nintendo platforms. Younger Nintendo fans might not know him as much, true, but at least he and his franchise is largely available for them on these platforms.
Again, I don't see why Snake should have priority over these characters when he has already been on Smash, barely appears on Nintendo platforms, and has closer ties with Sony ones. It should be obvious by now that many Nintendo fans would even react negatively to him being there again, the opposite of what you're trying to accomplish here. Being divisive to this level is already enough reason to leave him out.
@ bolded honestly id say the odds are pretty good, doesnt matter if it skips Ninty consoles as im sure a lot of gamers or at least enough are multiplat owners anyway. Hell its probably been like that since SOny got on the scene which by coincidence is when MGS got big. pretty sure most N64, GC and even WIi owners had another console where they would play MGS to their content. As for Ninty themselves? fair enough, it wouldnt make sense to approach him especially since they didnt intially, he did. He just didnt do it this time, probably cause he's busy with 5
I never meant to isuniate that Snake belonged more than Mega Man, hell no that makes no sense. BUt I do believe that Snake was more hyped...maybe hyped is a strong word, maybe shock as people didnt see that coming. Mega Man was well received didnt say otherwise, but IMHO the shock factor wasnt there like it was with Snake. Probably cause Mega Man does make more sense. I dont know the game itself seems to be the least hyped Smash ive seen. Again ill stress ive never thought Snake should have priority or is more important, i didnt even like the guy in smash and hes my 3rd fav video game character period. I wont go so far to say it would be negative I dont think people are that petty, they will just ignore him if he was in it which i dont think he is anyway.
As for Simon, well thats kind of my point not since SNES has he been seen. That was years I think it would be in Ninty's best interest to get a character that was more relevant. Alucard is more relevant as the game he starred in was THE most popular game in the franchise. Thats not opinion, SOTN is the best selling one and ironically its the one that theyve been trying to remake for years on GBA/DS they havent tried to make a original Castlevania in the original style in who knows how long. NOW they could get one of the more recent characters from the DS games. I think Soma? could work