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Most of the stores around me are still taking preorders which either means the allocation is meeting demand or demand isn't as strong as one would think a month before launch, especially considering the supply issues elsewhere.

Also, looking at the launch line up displays at the stores around me, there aren't really any games that feel like system sellers in Japan. It is mostly Western games, and having Knack as the (digital) pack-in game won't do them any favors.

I am sure that the system will do well on launch and will eventually be successful in Japan, but I don't think it will do that great with the masses until Japanese games are available at some later date.