It still has the "gaming console for people who really, really like TV" advantage. It might also have the casual advantage but it's too soon to determine if Kinect is still a draw or not. I'm interested to see how Kinect games sell.
Launch titles mean nothing. I refuse to believe that anyone seriously buys a console primarily on the weight of launch titles.
Microsoft's biggest advantage is that a lot of people feel invested in Xbox Live because of achievements, friends lists, and that gaming score thing. That alone will bring back a lot of people. The same is true for Sony, too, of course, though Nintendo hasn't really understood how valuable that is yet.