Dark_Feanor said:
I think a safe number is 2mi (2,5mi if you are realy optmistic) and Sony has to feed the NA market for BF and prepare fo Christmass WW. So, how much is left fo Europe day one? I don´t recall if Sony estimative of 5mi until March takes into account the Japanease launch. Any way, I´m using the Michael Pachter model of 1mi units for month, production starting in september. 1mi day one NA 1mi day one EU 1,5mi hollydays NA 1,5mi hollydays EU 500k Japan 1mi rest of the world hollydays So, unless Sony is underestimating their potential, that´s the reason why I belive Sony won´t give "second tier" countries that many units as some here belive. That is what we will have. 1mi day on NA 700k day one EU 1,2mi hollydays NA 800mi hollydays EU 500k Japan day one 300k rest of the world |
About second tier country you are right (I don't see them sending more than 10k here for launch or more than 50k for the first year mainly because of the price)... And I believe they were being conservative on their figures... it will be between 5 to 10M by March (probably more like 7M)... And I kind of agree with the general fell of your numbers... but still there is some confusion between your suposition about 1M to 3M launch in NA alone (WW would be possible to do it), 3M day one could be farfetched (maybe mainly because of store capacites) but not impossible... But certainly they wouldn't take more than 1 Month to sell everything (maybe in BF they could sell all of it).
And I think they have/had 2M~2.5M ready by the time of the NA launch but decided to ship around 1M (maybe your 800k) to europe and the rest would be decided for after launch analysis (but they will mostly certain replenish NA for BF).
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."