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If the PS4 matches Xbox One in the USA and then outperforms it in Europe more then the PS3 did then the 360, then I'd guess UC4 could see about 6m lifetime sales. It's going to be a big hit but ultimately it's limited by how fast the PS4 sell before next Xmas.

I reckon strong PS4 hardware sales could see it go to 6m, which imo would be above the PS4 versions of other big xmas hits next year (Next COD, next FIFA, next AC) and a really really good figure for a game on a 1 year old platform. I'd then scale down from 6m for if PS4 hardware sales arn't quite as prominent as that.