XBOne would need something drastic and unexpected to come along to win. Its price is far too high, and it doesn't have the XB360 advantage of launching early. Objectively one would say Wii U would be the favorite due to the early launch and lowest price, as well as being the follow up to the market leader. But PS4 has the benefit of late-gen PS3 momentum (due to the unprecedented mid-gen switch of gamers from Wii to PS360), very strong third party support and the most power, while being priced well under XBOne. I see gamers flocking either to PS4 or Wii U due to their respective strengths, but XBOne is offering nothing other than existing 360 owners being able to keep their accounts. The One will need a $100 price cut within its first year just to match its main competition and stay relevant in the market. I see MS dramatically losing market share in the US, and not gaining any elsewhere. Most likely a distant 3rd place finish for One without a major shake up.
