I'm impressed this thread is still going, as it seemed to me to just be a case of argumentum verbosium. If johnlucas has a valid argument it would be more interesting if put concisely, as it wouldn't require searching through all that text for his actual point.
I agree, right now it seems to be based on situations that happened 20 years ago? It's ridiculous really. No actual analysis or in depth predictions. I asked him for US figures for the holidays (so we can accurately guage how far out he'll be) but nothing so far.