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i don't know what the mass market will decide to buy so no clue...

this year should be easy for ps4. ps3 sold less as 360 but ps3 doesn't have less "hardcore" gamers in usa. probably even more as 360 and those are the guys who buy the consoles at launch. and i think microsoft can't even ship enough consoles this year to have a chance to compete even if more people would like to buy an xb1.