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The OP hit it on the head, the PS4 will outsell the XBOne for the first year by default of manufacturing. After that, things will get a lot closer. to follow the OP's timeline of the end of 2015, it will be 1.2 to 1 with the PS4 in the lead. If M4 gets lucky and the Kinect becomes some type of sensation, then it will be reversed.