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Well the Wii would have done a little worse at the start, but not much. I think in the long run it would have outpaced the actual Wii. It might have gotten better third party, but who knows.

360 would have done much worse I think. 360 really benefited from the early launch, even if RROD was a pain, they got their foot in the door and used that to beat sony for most of the gen. If sony as you said came out with a cheaper model around the same time as the 360, I could see it putting the xbox brand away.

I think in this scenario: Wii 120 million lifetime PS3 100 million lifetime xbox 45-50 million lifetime.