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well, they surely have some plans we maybe don't know about since they also know that weekly sales are already much lower. i also don't believe it but i don't know their plans.

about your points

1. this could be one of the problems for 360, at least some people don't like to buy "old" products. 

2. madden won't be available for current gen this year? didn't know that, why? but not sure if that is still such a system seller

3. no clue what you mean with that

4. it did and i'm sure microsoft also believes that ps3 will surpass 100m if they believe that for 360. but what has that to do with the 360 sales? 360 sales won't be lower because ps3 closed the gap.