Hey, great thread. People oftentimes look at brand and ignore the business aspects and the changing circumstances, which affected the success of the brand in the first place. I think PS3 sales will end up in the 50-60 million range. Higher than a 50% decline from PS2. I think they are significantly more vulnerable than Nintendo ever was in terms of potential one-generation losses (20-40%), but far less vulnerable than Sega (something like 70% lost). In terms of the all-important "number of known games" stat... Gamespot's lists show the numbers, and it makes it pretty obvious PS2-like domination is not in the works for PS3. They list 398 XB360 games, roughly 50-60 of those being XBLA games I would guess... They list 273 Wii games, including exactly 66 VC games, and they list 238 PS3 games, including the handful of known PSN games. Probably not scientific, but interesting.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
