I believe you are correct in your assertion that the big three have chosen to go in seperate directions. With all due respect to MSoft, I believe that the future of gaming is going to come down to a duel between Nintendo and Sony. If you watched the reveal, it was explicitly clear the audience was the casual market. Don't tell me the games will be there for E3, because like you said Halo isn't going to suck the majority of the core market. (and something tells me the other 8 exclusives and the rare game will be bad. Most Msoft IP's are beautiful but boring, with notable exceptions).
Nevertheless, XBOne could turn out to be the new wii. The voice control gimmick is catchy, and the multitasking thing (although i can do this on an iphone) is also potentially useful. One will succeed in America; that's msoft turf, and given my knowledge of fantasy football and the other cultural elements introduced in the reveal, America was the target audience.
THe main competition for the Wii U is neither of these two systems, however great they turn out to be. They are in a different price range and serve entirely different purposes (Gaming only vs. gaming and other multimedia). The Wii U is up against IOS and android, because the audience nint. normally gets is not going to spend 1000 dollars on a gaming device and a tablet on christmas for their kids. Fanboys and core gamers only account for a very small portion of nintendo's profit.
This Gen will be decided by the games that come out this christmas.
Basically,
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