I think they'll hit some trouble. Not because of a curse, but because of the decisions of both MS and Sony. Sony is coming out in full force this year. They seem to be making all the right decisions when it comes to the PS4. Easy to develop on HW, launching the same year as the NeXbox (as opposed to a year or more late), and a cheaper to make and sell HW. I think Sony is going to be a force to be reckoned with in EU and Japan.
MS, on the other hand, seems to be taking a few missteps. It's obvious they are focusing more on their device being an all-in-one entertainment device, something I think many core gamers are going to reject. I also believe core gamers are going to be turned off by how much they are continuing to focus on the Kinect. And while I don't 100% believe they will have an online requirement, something tells me they are going to be cracking down on used games. If these play out to be true, and since the PS4 will be available for around the same price, I can see Sony winning back quite a few of the core gamers it lost to the 360.
So, I don't see the NeXbox being a complete flop or anything. But, I don't see it being a close race between it and the PS4.
