Too early for me to do any WiiU predicting beyond I think it'll be around 10m by end of this year.
For Vita we have some more time. I've been pretty clear on my distaste for Sony's approach to Vita and I've said many times it should have been a phone. I stated then that it won't last longer than a few years but I was really waiting for this last holiday to pass before passing final judgement.
Vita launched Japan in December 2011 and pretty much everywhere else in February 2012.
|2011 (1 month - Japan Only)||2012||2013 (2.5months)|
Basically 4.5m in 15.5 months. That's a pretty weak start by any definition. Which is exactly in line with my reasoning on attacking Vita early last year for Sony's approach to portable gaming.
There is some hope in its purported usage with PS4,however, how many people will buy a $200 accessory for a $400 home console? For that approach to work, Vita would need to be sub-$100 and I don't think Vita will be anywhere near $100 in 2014. Limited streaming of your console game over various crappy free wifi networks will not push consumers to buy Vita at any price really.
So, my opinion is that Vita will still have a very short life. I think I originally said it wouldn't last past 2014 and I am actually going to put that to 2015 due to Sony's push for it as a strong accessory to PS4. However, by the end of this year there will be MANY portable devices well ahead of Vita in power and gaming content for similar or less prices that also have A LOT more portable functionality. People will choose those over a Vita.
Vita will hit 10m by end of this year with strong push by Sony and PS4 launch.
Vita will then add another 3 to 5 million in 2014.
Vita will then be replaced in early to mid 2015 due to no growth and actually a YOY decline. It will be replaced with what I argued Sony should have done to begin with. A far better portable product focused on Android platform with strong PlayStation inclusion, including the same PS4 streaming capability, but on 4GLTE and a detachable $20 controller.
Vita ending life around 20m.