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I felt all month that VGC was a bit high on SMG, SMG is not the type of game that sells more than hardware moves. However, I think NDP is wrong on this also. They do not have Nintendo's #1 and 2 retailers (Walmart and TRU). I think in general 360 owners (especially COD4 gamers) are more likely to buy games online. If someone wants mario they go walmart and buy it, casual are generally less "linked".
I am thinking that it should look something like this

220k SMG
270k COD4

I also don't get COD4 selling 100k more than 360's were sold... this number is wrong. (both VGC and NPD) It is not like 100,000 360 owner "forgot" to buy it over Cmas. COD4's legs will die quick(soon)

The reason I believed SMG was being overtracked is because there were weeks when only 50k of the Wii were moved but 90-100k of SMG were sold. Like I said that is not how mario sells, look at NSMB, it generally sells in proportion to HW.

All in all it looks like the DS did what it did last year, and somehow ioi did not reconize it.

Also, since the Wii is supply controlled(and not demand) it is very possible Nintendo sent extra demand to Canada(where Wii is even more popular per capa) it could be more like 15% who knows.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut