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I do think Nintendo and Sony have a good chance to win next gen. but, if Microsoft starts a price war, Sony will be in trouble. And im pretty sure they will.
Sell the 720 for 100 less just like they did with the 360 (if not more). Microsoft will lose alot of money on each unit sold, but they can take that loss. Sony has their hands tied up. I'm sure they will come out with a reasonable price and console, but Microsoft is a dirty player.

As for nintendo, this head start they are having will make all the difference down the line. Even if they only sell 5 million Wii U's a year, they will already be near to 10 million by the end of this year.