Q4 2012 Hardware Analysis (VGC Exclusive)

[Michael-5]

Platform	2011 Annuals Sales	2012 Annual Sales	% Difference
3DS	13.25 million	13.78 million	+4%
PS3	14.12 million	11.89 million	-15.8%
360	13.81 million	10.48 million	-24.1%
Wii	11.57 million	5.13 million	-55.7%
PSV	0.48 million	3.60 million	+750%
DS	8.83 million	3.53 million	-60%
PS2	4.10 million	2.92 million	-28.8%
PSP	7.33 million	2.91 million	-60.3%
WiiU	N/A	2.45 million	N/A

I don't know why I removed PS2 data from this graph, but oh well. PS3 has been outselling the 360 since 2009, and up to 2010 Nintendo owns. Nintendo will probably own in 2013 with WiiU and 3DS sales dominating.

It's funny that the DS and PS2 have nearly identical lifetime sales with very different sales patterns. PS2 manged to sell 50 more units after it was replaced, while DS is struggling, selling less then 15 million after it's replacement. This is likely because of the high cost of importing consoles in South America, which faovrs Sony heavily, and Japan adandoning old consoles, which is a strong region for DS.

Comparing PS3 and 360 it's interesting to see that while PS3 has been outselling the 360 for the last 4 years, 360 has been outselling the PS3 for it's later years in it's alligned life. Chances are PS3 will not be able to keep up with the 360 for it's 7th and 8th year on the market. Many people used to argue PS3 was going to outsell the 360 fast because it's alligned sales were initially higher, so does this mean that PS3 sales will crash before it has a chance to surpass the 360? Or maybe PS3 sales will crash just after, leaving both consoles with similar lifetime sales. Anything can happen, Sony typically sell well after their console is replaced, but this is Microsofts first high volume console, so anything can happen.

If PS3/360 sales are to continue to follow PSP sales, chances are both system will stop selling at around 10 years, with year 9 and 10 being fairly weak years.

Wii needs a decent tail to surpass PS1 sales, if it follows DS's late life pattern, it might just do it, but if it follows GBA's pattern it probably won't.

As for 3DS anything can happen. It's hard to compare 3DS to DS because of the $80 price cut it got in its first year, which lead to strong sales, but it should mimic DS sales and sell well over 100 million lifetime.

What to expect for 2013

PS3 and 360 sales are within 2 million units, however PS3 and 360 sales are expected to be significantly lower in 2013 then in 2012. Just like Wii sales crashed in 2012, expect PS3/360 sales to crash in 2013, especially after the announcement of next gen systems. PS3/360 sales probably won't fall by 50% or great like Wii's did because the next generation systems have still not been announced, but chances are fall 2013 sales will be hurt. This means that 2013 annual sales will likely range between 5-7 million units for the 360, and 7-9 units for the PS3. IF PS3 doesn't overtake 360 in 2013, it will come very close and overtake it in 2014.

PS3 and 360 should overtake PSP Worldwide in 2013. The 360 is only 1.5 million units behind the PSP, so it could overtake it as early as Q1 of 2013. PS3 will likely overtake the PSP in Q2/Q3 2013.

Wii is currently 5 million units behind PS1 in lifetime sales (3.5 if you use Sony and Wikipedia's numbers). If Nintendo releases the Wii Mini outside of Canada, Wii sales should still be strong in 2013, and it could sell as much as 4 million units. Still short of PS1 lifetime sales, but this will give Wii a chance to top PS1 in 2014. Without a decent push from Nintendo, the Wii may sell as little as 2 million units in 2013, and 2 million more in the years after, thus putting it just behind the PS1 in terms of lifetime sales. I doubt Nintendo wants this, but lets see what happens. Wii could pass PS1 sales in 2013 or 2014.

By Q4 2013, the 360 could pass GBA's lifetime sales of 81.51 million. PS3 will likely be very close to this point as well. If either or both systems do not surpass GBA in 2013, they will surpass GBA's lifetime sales in 2014.

360 should pass Wii's USA lifetime sales in 2013, but PS3 probably won't pass Wii lifetime sales in Europe until 2014. 360 only needs 1.91 millionmore sales then Wii in 2013 to pass Wii in USA. PS3 needs 4.07 million, which is possible, only if PS3 has a strong year in 2013, which it probably won't.

DS will continue to crawl closer and closer to PS2's lifetime sales. currently it is 2.5 million units behind the PS2, but it did outsell it by about 1.6 million units this year. With PS2 now discontinued in Japan, and sales increadibly slow in developed countries, PS2 sales will likely drop strongly next year. However DS sales could drop a bit as well. Anything could happen in this battle, but if DS surpasses PS2's lifetime sales, it probably won't happen in 2013. PS2 is still King baby.

3DS should pass N64, Atari 2600, and Sega Genesis lifetime sales in the first half of 2013, making the system the 12th best selling system of all time in only a little over 2 years.

PSV should pass Sega CD and Colecovision sales in 2013, and with a bit of luck maybe even Sega Dreamcast and Sega Saturn sales. If not it will be in the 7-9 million ballpark, which is decent.

WiiU will outsell the PSV, probably within the first quarter of 2013. WiiU should also top a list of other semi successful systems including the Turbo Grafx, Sega Master System, Saturn, and Dreamcast. Expect WiiU sales to approach Gamecube and X-Box 1 lifetime sales by the end of 2013.

Best Selling Video Game Consoles

Note: Release Dates are for North America, the bolded values beside some consoles represent the number of units sold since the last update.

1 – 156.72 million - Sony Playstation 2 (October 26th, 2000) (Plus 0.54 million)
2 – 154.27 million - Nintendo DS (November 21st, 2004) (Plus 1.64 million)
3 – 118.69 million - Nintendo Gameboy and Gameboy Color (GB-August 1989, GBC-November 1998)
4 – 104.25 million - Sony Playstation (September 9th, 1995)
5 – 98.79 million - Nintendo Wii (November 19th, 2006) (Plus 2.13 million)
6 – 81.51 million - Nintendo Gameboy Advance (June 11th, 2001)
7 – 75.77 million - Sony Playstation Portable (March 24th, 2005) (Plus 0.71 million)
8 – 74.25 million - Microsoft X-Box 360 (November 22nd, 2005) (Plus 5.67 million)
9 – 72.41 million - Sony Playstation 3 (November 11th 2006) (Plus 5.59 million)
10 – 61.91 million - Nintendo Entertainment System (US-October 18th, 1985, Can-February 1986)
11 – 49.10 million - Super Nintendo Entertainment System (August 13th 1991)
12 – 32.93 million - Nintendo 64 (September 29th, 1996)
13 – 30.00 million - Atari 2600 (October, 1977)
14 – 28.54 million - Sega Mega Drive/Genesis (August 14th, 1989)
15 – 27.03 million – Nintendo 3DS (March 27^th, 2011) (Plus 6.38 million)
16 – 24.65 million - Microsoft X-Box (November 15th, 2001)
17 – 21.74 million - Nintendo Gamecube (November 18th, 2001)
18 – 13.00 million - Sega Master System (October 1986)
19 – 10.62 million - Sega GameGear (1991)
20 – 10.00 million - Nippon Electric Company TurboGrafx-16 (August 29th, 1989)
21 – 8.82 million - Sega Saturn (May 11th 1995)
22 – 8.20 million - Sega Dreamcast (September 9th, 1999)
23 – 6.00 million - Coleco ColecoVision (August 1982)
24 – 6.00 million - Sega CD (October 15th 1992)
25 – 4.09 million – Playstation Vita (February 15^th, 2012) (Plus 1.37 million)
26 – 3.00 million - Mattel Intellivision (1980)
27 – 3.00 million - Nokia N-Gage (October 7th, 2003)
28 - 2.45 million - Nintendo WiiU (November 18^th, 2012) NEW
29 – 2.00 million - Panasonic 3DO Interactive Multiplayer (September 1993)
29 – 2.00 million - SNK Neo-Geo Pocket, and Neo-Geo Pocket Colour (1998)
31 – 1.50 million - Nippon Electric Company TurboExpress (1990)
32 - 1.12 million – Namco Bandai WonderSwan (1999)
33 – 1.00 million - Sega Nomad (October 1995)
34 - 0.77 million - Nintendo Virtual Boy (August 14th 1995)
35 - 0.57 million - Phillips CDi (1991)
36 - 0.50 million - Atari Lynx (September 1989)
37 - 0.30 million - Tiger Electronics Game.com (September 1997)
38 - 0.25 million - Atari Jaguar (November 18th 1993)
39 - 0.20 million - Sega 32X (November 1994)
40 - 0.042 million - Apple Pippin (1995)
41 - 0.025 million - Tiger Telematics Gizmondo (March 19th 1995)
42 - 0.015 million - Nintendo 64 Disk Drive (December 1st 1999- Japan Only)

Current Generation Regional Console Sales

USA

1 – 52.34 million - Nintendo DS (Plus 1.04 million)
2 – 49.09 million – Sony PS2 (Plus 0.06 million)- 6th Gen
3 – 40.77 million - Nintendo Wii (Plus 1.13 million)
4 – 38.86 million - Xbox 360 (Plus 3.55 million)
5 – 23.89 million - Sony PS3 (Plus 1.84 million)
6 – 19.63 million - Sony PSP (Plus 0.06 million)
7 – 7.62 million – Nintendo 3DS (Plus 1.90 million) - 8th Gen
8 – 1.24 million – Sony PSV – (Plus 0.56 million) - 8th Gen
9 – 1.09 million – Nintendo WiiU – NEW - 8^th Gen

 

Europe

1 – 54.05 million – Sony PS2 (Plus 0.14 million) - 6th Gen
2 – 51.97 million - Nintendo DS (Plus 0.40 million)
3 – 32.52 million - Nintendo Wii (Plus 0.62 million)
4 – 28.45 million - Sony PS3 (Plus 2.34 million)
6 – 23.03 million - Xbox 360 (Plus 1.38 million)
5 – 21.65 million - Sony PSP (Plus 0.10 million)
7 – 7.19 million – Nintendo 3DS (Plus 1.76 million) - 8th Gen
8 – 1.35 million – Sony PSV – (Plus 0.57 million) - 8th Gen
9 – 0.47 million – Nintendo WiiU – NEW - 8^th Gen

 

Japan

1 – 33.01 million - Nintendo DS (Plus 0.01 million)
2 – 21.83 million – Sony PS2 (Plus 0.01 million) - 6th Gen
3 – 19.48 million - Sony PSP (Plus 0.26 million)
4 – 12.68 million - Nintendo Wii (Plus 0.08 million)
6 – 9.82 million – Nintendo 3DS (Plus 2.27 million) - 8th Gen
5 – 8.90 million - Sony PS3 (Plus 0.41 million)
7 - 1.65 million - Xbox 360 (Plus 0.03 million)
8 – 1.11 million – Sony PSV (Plus 0.13 million) - 8th Gen
9 – 0.64 million – Nintendo WiiU – NEW - 8^th Gen

My Math for PS2 sales

VGC has PS2 sales at 153.68 million as of 2011 end, with 2.25 million units sold in that year. Sony claims 154.5 million units shipped by this point, with 4.7 million shipped in that year. So this puts approximately 720k units on shelves. Since FYQ3 2011, Sony has been shipping less then 50% of PS2 systems from the prior year, so far all simple estimation purposes, I will assume for Quarters not given that PS2 shipments are 60% of what they were in 2011 (So I'm being optimistic). Also I'm going to assume Sony sells everything they ship except for 1/3^rd the previous years shipment. (which would put PS2 at 700k units sold less then shipped as VGC had it).

Sony claims 0.6 million units shipped in Q1 of this year (Q4FY 2011). 60% of Q1/Q2 FY 2011 sales (April 1st-Sept 31^st) give PS2 0.7 and 0.6 million units shipped respectively, and assuming everything is sold except for 1/3^rd the last shipment. This would put PS2 at 0.6 million shipped for Q1, 0.84 million shipped for Q2, 0.72 million shipped for Q3, and 0.54 million shipped for Q4.

This would give Sony 0.94 million units sold for Q1, 0.78 million units for Q2, 0.78 million units for Q3 and 0.54 million for Q4. This leaves a gap between units shipped and sold of 0.38 million for Q3 and 0.20 million for Q4. This puts PS2 sales at 2.94 million sold for the end of 2012.

So 2.94 million sold for 2.70 million shipped, yes it is selling more then it shipped, but it's shipping significantly less then it used to and....well PS2 should phase out soon. It has in Japan just recently, I'm sure USA and Europe will follow suit soon too. Pretty amazing for a 12 year old console to be holding off DS from the crown.

Now this means that PS2 will be selling 0.63 million better then in 2011 if we use VGC's PS2 sales data (selling 2.25 million in 2011), but when you look at how much PS2 has been shipping in the last 3 years, if we trusted VGC data, PS2 sales should be 5 million behind the shipped value, but even VGC's own PS2 total isn't that far off. Clearly VGC can't track PS2, and that's why they stopped sharing PS2 data (although they still give PS2 software sales in Japan).

For regional sales, I am going to assume 60% of PS2 sales are in the Middle East, South America, Africa, Canada, etc. I'm going to assume 25% of PS2 sales are from Europe, and 12.5% are from the US. About 2.5% are attributed by Japan (Media Create). So if this quarter PS2 sold 0.78 million, this means that 0.195 million sales are gained in Europe, and 0.0975 sales are gained in USA. I estimate that PS2 sales in USA are 48.72 at end of 2011 (53.65 million sales in North America x (10/11) since Mexico sales are minor, and Canada is 1/10^th the US population)

PS2 hardware sales data in Japan is obtained using Media Create information, while software sales data is supplied by VGC.

P.S. 2.94 million sales for 2012 is quite high for PS2. It's more then the WiiU for the year, and a hair better then PSP. Ds will have to fight for the title best selling system if PS2 keeps this up. PS2 does not get a large boost in sales in Q4 like most consoles, and it's sales are fairly evenly spread during the year. Still impressive though.