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The dev cycle was going to be as long as it took for the Wii U to launch. If the Wii U launched next year, then the dev cycle would be 4 years.

Of course the NSMB Wii team was put on NSMB Next right away, Iwata probably in the back of his mind had in mind for a Wii successor launch.

They probably were just doing light experimentation the first year.