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I'm inclined to believe that Sony is a rational company that is making decisions in their long term best interests ...

As a result of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony use a lot of the engineering from the PS3 in the PS4 to make their life easier. Basically, use a modified Cell processor, a GPU similar in performance to the Radeon HD7750, 2GB of GDDR5 memory, Blu-Ray drive and (probably) a terrabyte hard drive. When released in Q4 of 2013 it will have a manufacturing price somewhere in the $300 to $400 range, and Sony could afford to sell it for $400 even if it has an "innovative" controller and/or a packed in game.