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I always felt that the Wii was not the same "Generation" as the PS3/360. For example, major third party titles like Final Fantasy XIII or Assassin's Creed where not published on the Wii. Other Titles had a version for PS3/360 and another Version for PS2/Wii/(PSP).

The Wii also wasn't a direct competitor who could steal away an important game from the PS3/360. The control scheme was also a problem, because the controller of the Wii was too different from the PS3/360 controller, making it more difficult to port the game to the Wii.

The Wii U will close the gap and will take the Wii to the same Level with the PS3/360, so that it will get some games along with them. But since the Wii missed the beginning of some franchises I somehow doubt that the sales figures will be relatively small. The difference in the install base might cause some relatively horrible numbers compared to the established consoles (Assassin's Creed 3 for example).

I somehow feel that the Wii U will have a hard time. The Wii hast lost its steam lately and the software draught left a bitter taste. The casual crowd might not spend another € 200-€ 300 for a console when they already stopped playing their old one. The Wii U might not get the same press hype as the WII. In a big German newspaper it was cited amongst the top5 disappointments of the E3.

All in all, I think that Sony has a good understanding of the Situation of the Wii. the VITA-Situation is also not too bad. People are just too impatient. The 3DS had a week start, but the transition from DS to 3DS went rather smoothly. The PSP is still doing relatively strong and there are still great games coming out for it in Japan.

That might be the reason why Sony and Microsoft are still holding back their new consoles. They simply could have a horrible start as long as people are not willing to make the transition to the next generation.