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I think PS3 can maintain the lead again this year.
-Last year 360 had a Gears 3 bundle, this year it had Kinect Star Wars which didn't really boost it past PS3.
-Last year 360 had a MW3 bundle, this year it has Halo 4 bundle. The HW boost should be very similar.
-Last year the Kinect effect was still pretty strong, this year it's not.
-360 slim momentum was also present last year.

It is 2012 and the 360 has nothing refreshing, it has no momentum going for it like it did in 2011. It would take a price cut for it to have a chance to surpass the PS3 this year. Oh and we also got Wii U coming out. Who knows how that will affect PS360 holiday sales.