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I think that this depends entirely on how you define success ...

Based on likely actions by Sony, I would say the realistic lifetime sales of the PS-Vita would be somewhere between 20 Million and 60 Million units. While the PS-Vita could do better, I believe it would require Sony to do things they realistically can not afford to do. At the upper end of this range most people would accept it as being successful, and at the lower end of this range most people would call it a failure.