| naznatips said: Updated odds of entry list. Keep in mind these factors contributed to this: The fact that there only seem to be room for 4 characters per sticker suggests no more than 4 characters per franchise. This means that the Mario characters for example other than Mario, Luigi, Peach, and Bowser dropped wayyyy down in odds to almost nothing. Also keep in mind that we are still looking for a franchise to fill the last empty spot... hence Isaac's fairly high odds. Confirmed: Unconfirmed (est. odds of entry) Other notes: Tails and Knuckles not being on Sonic's sticker lowered them to almost zero odds. The fact that they went down took Raiden down with them. Geno went down as a result of Mario spots being full, but has higher percentages than the others because he could concievably have his own icon. Any questions, feel free to ask. |
You can think of things in terms of each franchise being allocated a certain number of slots. The fans obviously want characters from their favorite series, but if there are too many characters per series then the character list would be too unwieldly.
You could break the franchises into tiers based on how important they are in sales, devotion of their fanbases, and simply how many useable characters they can provide:
- Mario is Nintendo's flagship franchise and so its likely to be allocated more slots than any other franchise. It already has 4 characters confirmed and the 5th is a shoe in.
- Pokemon gets 4 slots.
- Zelda is definitely a three slot franchise and it would make perfect sense to have the three Triforce bearing characters in those slots.
- Kirby is definitely another three slot franchise. Don't expect any hidden Kirby characters.
- StarFox could be a 2 or 3 slotter. I'm leaning toward 2 slots.
- It looks like Earthbound is a 2 slotter.
- Metroid is hard to place. In the US and Europe, it should be a 2 slotter, or maybe even a 3 slotter. In Japan it would qualify as a 1 slotter. 2 slots seems reasonable to me since Nintendo is at least vaguely aware they have western fans. Ridley seems the likely candidate for second Metroid character, but Dark Samus is also possible.
- I'd expect 2 slots for Fire Emblem.
- Donkey Kong is probably relegated to 2 slot status. I don't think there's enough fan interest to add K. Rool and Dixie Kong isn't worth the trouble it would take to differentiate her from Diddy Kong.
- F-Zero ought to be worthy of two slots. Black Shadow could be a second F-Zero character.
- Wario Ware, Ice Climbers, Game and Watch, Kid Icarus, and Pikmin only get one slot each since they each only have one character/ensemble-of-characters-working-in-concert that's suitable for a fighting game.
- Given the evidence against there being any other Sonic or Metal Gear characters, I think it's safe to assume any visiting franchise can only have 1 slot.
Even more speculative:
Based on those assumptions that gives 34 characters total. I'm expecting the real total to be 32 or 36. Why? Because it's harder to make the character selection screen look good with other numbers of characters.
