| CGI-Quality said: I'm sure this will go on deaf ears, but much of what you've done here doesn't add up, or exaggerates the situation. |
Nope, there may have been the odd repeated guess counted but the difference would be no more than 3 or 4. Not enough to tip the scales out of the overestimates favour. As it stands, Uncharted 2 is the only game to do better than expected, God of War 3 and GT5 are underperforming significantly and as I said before, there are still more overestimations then underestimations.
| CGI-Quality said: Uncharted 2 only has three predictions of anything over 5.2million (something it will reach here shortly). The rest of the posts (pre-release - not a single one pegged it higher than 5 million), have been anywhere between 4.5 & 5.2million. As I said, you cherry picked a few predictions and claimed to tally them up. I didn't have to do any of that to see how off you were. |
Not sure why you're singling out, pre-release guesses. Several of the post release guesses are also way over and this was using more up to date figures. You'd think that would mean they'd be more accurate.
There's been no cherry picking involved, this is every guess from the inception of the topic to the last post being mine, if people updated their figures (very few did) they were usually upward revisions and not even that drastic. The only cherry picking here has been done by you.
| CGI-Quality said: Post release are either revised predictions or 1st time predictions based on the game's performance. Most of them will come to pass. |
Maybe, most likely not. Either way, they're incorrect AT THIS MOMENT. Therefoe much crow to be eaten from the day these games went on sale to now and a long long time ahead.
| CGI-Quality said:
Most were anywhere between 7 & 9.5mill (the former being something it will definitely reach and the latter not necessarily out of the question given the franchise's history and GT5's current sell pattern in conjunction to it's predecessor). Bottom line, all three haven't finished selling and most predictions were underestimated. |
When that happens, the crow serving will stop. For the next 5-6 years, servings will continue.The bottom line is, even using revised sales date, there are way more over predictions overall and by a far larger margin of error than any of the Uncharted 2 guesses. Which if anything further justifies that it's the over guesses who should be eating crow.
| CGI-Quality said:
Gran Turismo 5 is the only one that you can even begin to make any claims about (and even then it's far from done in sales). Harder to judeg, but I saw maybe three 11 and/or 12 million predictions. |
Well that's see hmm. Starting with the over 9.5m+ ones first
| darthdevidem01 said: GRAN TURISMO 5 -- 10 Million |
| BHR-3 said: vgc must of adjusted there gt5 sales i dont remember it being that high so maybe 10M has a shot |
| calibrate` said: Gran Turismo 5: 10 - 12 million |
| nickvasko said: GT5 will touch 9/10million |
| CGI-Quality said: Gran Turismo 5 - 10 mill. |
| BloodyRain said: Gran Turismo 5: 9-10 million |
| leatherhat said: GT5 can do 10 million **REVISED TO 11 Million later** |
| iWarMachine said:
Gran Turismo 5 probably will not have much pre-orders, but sure it'll have sales to reach 10-11M LTD... |
| TrevDaRev said: I don't think it'll reach that number, but I do think it has a good shot at 11 million. **(REVISED UPWARDS FROM 9.5M)** |
| NSS7 said: GT5 should do 9-11 million. With all the contents it offered it deserve 10 million sales. |
| bumblejr2 said: GT5: 20Million!!! -11million :) |
| Vetteman94 said: Gran Turismo 5 - 11 M |
| Scoobes said: GT5 I think lifetime could reach 10 million **REVISED DOWN FROM "GT3/GT4 NUMBERS"** |
| Gilgamesh said: Gran Turismo 5: 9.5 million |
| susymar said: GT5: 13 million (I'm serious) |
| luvtospooge said: Gran Turismo 5 - 10mil if bundled. |
|
makingmusic476 said: |
Total of 17 said over 9.5 million - They should all be eating crow as these are even further off base then the Uncharted 2/gow predictions. Averaging the ranges, bings us a total guess of 177 Million sales, for an average guess of 10.4 million copies of GT5, approximately 4 million off of what it is now. Tsk.
Lets see who simply guessed over it's current total
| KeyStyle said: GT5=9 million with price cut and/or slim i think the lifetime sales will be bigger!!!) |
| sabby_e17 said: Gran Turismo 5: 9 million |
DirtyP2002 said:
|
| XxXProphecyXxX said: *GT5 - 7m - 9m. |
| Slimebeast said: Gran Turmiso 5 - 7.56 million **REVISED UPWARDS TO 9 MILLION IF BUNDLED** |
| Kantor said:
. I predict 8.5-9.5 million sales: the highest selling PS3 game, the lowest selling full Gran Turismo, and it won't outsell Halo 3. |
| coolbeans said: GT5= Hmmm.....I guess 7-8 mil? |
| --OkeyDokey-- said: GT5: 8 million |
| toastboy44562 said: gt5-8 million |
| ClaudeLv250 said: Gran Turismo 5 - 8.5m |
| FJ-Warez said: Gran Turismo 5 : 7 M - 9 M |
| Bagaren85 said: Gran Turismo 5 : 7.8 M |
| irtz said: Gt5 near 9 million |
| jester2358 said:
lets say 9.5 million, unless it explodes like gt3 of course. |
| Chibi.V.29 said:
gt5 in recon could pull of an 9.5 |
| 9087 said:
GT5 will easily reach 7.5 million LTD. |
| PlaystaionGamer said: The most it could do, and this is WITH alot of hope. would be 7mil life. not a chance of more |
| Dahum said: Gran Turismo 5: 9 million |
Total of 18 estimates and a total of 151.8 million copies of GT5 is an average of 8.43 million.
Combine that with the above and you get 328.8 million / 35 and you get an average of 9.39 million for GT5, 3 million over estimated overall. A whopping 46 % more sales then it has.
More importantly, anyone above should be eating much crow, every day until it matches their estimates. Which is either many years of never, the latter looking more likely.
So as proven, 35 over estimates was within tolerance of what I said above and proves there was no cherry picking, only 4 duplicate estimates, any revisions have been posted. Thus confirming I'm being truthful. Once again the only cherry picking done by you. 3? Seriously? Check again before posting.
To finalise this analysis those who under estmated GT5
| Carl2291 said: Gran Turismo 5 - 5 Million max. |
| Aion said: GT5- 6 million |
| legend92(3) said: Gran Turismo 5- 5-6 million |
3 people (1 more than i originally said so I guess I missed it) - An average of 5.5 million copies of GT5, within 800K of its current total.
And those who were within 200,000 tolerance or technically still correct, well done to you.
| PlaystaionGamer said: Gran Turismo 5: 5.9/6.2 at most |
| zaMy said: GT5 4 - 7 mill. |
| KeyStyle said: Gran Turismo 5 - 6,3m |
So in analysis
35 People over estimated GT5 sales by almost 3 million on average.
3 people underestimate GT5 sales by almost 800,000 on average.
3 people were close enough to be considered correct.
So odds are, if you made a GT5 sales prediction here, 88.5% of you should be eating crow.
