When will Wii Reach 100M

[Nintendogamer]

superchunk said:

Nintendogamer said:

superchunk said:

Nintendogamer said:

superchunk said:

Nintendogamer said:

superchunk said:
First 6 months of 2010: 6.8m
Last 6 months of 2010: 11.3m
2010 Total: 18.1m

First 6 months of 2011: 4.5m (66% of 2010)
Est last 6 months of 2011: 8.5m (75% of 2010, assuming price reduction allows Wii to remain a little higher than the first half year's YoY reduction)
2011 Total: 13m

LTD at end of 2011: 96.2m.

Give or take a couple million and there still no chance it will break 100m in 2011.

I'd bet in first 6mos of 2012 it will break 100m.

too high on your last 6 months of 2011 estimation, about 5M-6M I say.

History suggests that last 6mos (holiday time frame) shows a nearly 100% jump in sales.

This year is strangest of all, a sidden drop, rather than small drops each year.

What do you mean? Since 2008's peak the Wii has had rather normal annual drops.

3M drop each year till now it seems to be about 6M now the way it's going or 7M.

 

Console	1st yr	2nd yr	% chg	3rd yr	% chg	4th yr	% chg	5th yr	% chg	6th yr	% chg
PS2	5.61	16.07	286.5%	21.29	132.5%	19.76	92.8%	16.19	81.9%	18.78	116.0%
Wii	2.93	16.39	559.4%	24.36	148.6%	21.44	88.0%	18.07	84.3%	13	71.9%

 

7th yr	% chg	8th yr	% chg	9th yr	% chg	10th yr	% chg
13.66	72.7%	11.09	81.2%	8.93	80.5%	6.06	67.9%

Comparing Wii to PS2, it seems right in line, (with the exception of PS2's odd jump in 6th year, however, that is inline with its 7th year and same rate of decline). However, that jump in its 7th year may allow PS2 to remain higher in the long run.

7th year I expect about 8M, so about 100M towards endof 2012 sounds about right.