Wii will lose a little market share this year. NTDOY still has not demonstrated willingness to increase production. Limiting its growth potential.
PS3 will gain marketshare because it IS the most future-proof BluRay player on the market. Few dedicated players will get the firmware refreshes required for profile 2.0 and further. PS3 will and it's doubtful that any BD player that's price competitive with PS3 will. With BD effectively winning the HD gen of video players, PS3 stands most to gain from this. The only limiting factor to this will be marketing.
360 will get the most 3rd party AAA titles again. Even if it won't be 360 exclusive, but it will be first developed for 360 with the top talent. PS3 will be 2nd tier. This is the way that the resources were aligned in 2007. 2008 will bear fruit to the effort reallocation. Of course, 1st party studios will still develop exclusives for their respective consoles. Viral nature of XBL Achievements will continue to grow the game sales. Tho console sales will lag comparatively
Wii will continue to get shovelware. Few gems will still come from NTDOY, but virtually all 3rd parties will still treat Wii as an afterthought. Hopefully, an original third party game will shine (saleswise) in 2008, bringing 3rd party notice to Wii potential but will be too late to capitalize in 2008
1. Last year they increased production twice. Furthermmore, even with supply constraints it still outsold the PS3 more than 2:1. To lose marketshare it should be OUTSOLD by the PS3 and 360. With the amount Nintendo can produce (around 24 million a year) I don't think Wii is in trouble losing marketshare due to production. You're right that it could have been even more massive.
2. We're talking gameconsoles. The mass costumer doesn't regard the PS3 as a normal BR player, it sees it as a gameconsole. To add to that: even if HD-players will take of it won't be this year or the next. As long as DVD's have almost the same quality (almost innoticeable to regular people) and DVD's are a lot cheaper BR won't be a mass market format.
3. You're kidding right? VG Developers are in this business to make money. The money is at the Wii, both in the install base and the lower production costs. The shovelware of last year was mainly caused by the surprise coup of Nintendo. 3rd parties didn't have anything read, but wanted to capitalize on the succes, resulting in fast made, bad quality ports. This year you'll see drastic change. Most of the devs will have bigger projects for Wii, that started when the succes became clear. That means the games with longer development times will start arriving this year. You don't have to believe me because you'll see for yourself.