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If Sony really wants to beat 3DS, they need to reach out to the mass market and make games that appeal to them like Nintendo did with the DS, and I see no signs of them doing this right now. But at the same time, Nintendo isn't really either. So it'll be a much closer race than the DS vs PSP race, and I think Vita will actually take Japan.

But overall, I still think Nintendo's experience in the handheld market, the large amount of third party support, the strength of their American market, and the head start, will be too much for Sony to overcome.