I can understand the basis of your claims by what you have perceived. It is evident that Microsoft is trying to push lots of resources to casual gamers as evidenced by many of the Kinect titles and marketing. Im calling it now that Disneyland, and Seseme street Kinect are going to be HUGE hits this holiday season with moms and kids. Even though I have no interest in those titles its obvious they are full fledged casual titles for kids and their parents. As of now it appears they are keeping a small base of popular exclusive hardcore games. This includes: Halo Franchise, Gears of War Franchise, Forza Franchise, Fable Series (seems to have lost some of its appeal recently), Splinter Cell series, newly created Alan Wake series, and a handful of other minor exclusives. It recently was reported that Microsoft has created a number of new studios that are developing games. It could be that they are creating new major exclusive fanchises, but no one really knows. All we know is that it seems to be Microsoft's exclusive hardcore titles has diminished somewhat since the Xbox 360 was released.
Remember there were some great exclusives for the x360 that are no long exclusive such as Mass Effect, Saints Row, Dead Rising, among some others. It sounds almost as if Microsoft is dwindeling down their exclusive offerings to a handful of big name hits for their hardcore gamers in order to streamline what Xbox 360 is known for, and to make room for the casual genre via Kinect. It appears Kinect has grown a few very popular hits of its own for the casual crowd in the; Kinect Sports series, Dance Centeral series, Your Shape Fitness series, and some new titles such as Ryse by Crytek, and Star Wars. It appears Microsoft is trying to be more focused with certain franchises that go along with all the other very popular 3rd party title offerings.
Will Kinect catch on to the casual gamers? Well, in some senses it already has, but mainly in United States and a little in Europe. Not really at all in Japan of course. It has not however grown its casual crowd like the Wii did, and I doubt it will be able to achieve that much in the casual realm of gaming, but it is making an impact non the less.
I think Nintendo is definately trying to capture the hardcore crowd back, but with the Wii U it seems that they are still trying to hold onto the casual market of course. From what I saw a lot that was demonstrated was casual games. Im aware they also announced a handful of popular 3rd party hardcore titles, but Nintendo has their work cut out for them I think in the hardcore crowd. I believe they can do it, seeing as how effective they have been in many things they invet/market. My concern as everyone else will be the cost of Wii U. Indeed if a family in a home wants to have 4 players then of course they will need to buy four of those controllers(EDIT UPDATE: I have read some articles saying Nintendo plans to have one screen controller and other players use a wii mote to connect through the screen. I can see where this cuts down costs, but still not sure how that will work with one player having a screen. Its becoming more evident that Wii U is still in development stages as Nintendo trys to figure out their strategy of the system. I think we will remain a bit confused until we see its full reveal likely late this year or next E3 depending on release date.). No question about it those controllers are going to be very expensive. Much moreso than a standard x360/PS3 controller. I think I need to see more from Nintendo than what I have already to make certain assessments. So far I am more confused about their approach/agenda in the Wii U. It is evident they are still very much in development stages and questioning themselves of how to market it. I will admit though Wii U looks like it can have a lot of potential. Im just not conviced it will attract the hardcore crowd that much yet.
As far as Sony goes It is evident that their main focus is primarily on the hardcore gamer. They have created numerous new exclusive titles just in the past couple of years. However, no one can say any of their titles comes close to the popularity of Halo, or Gears of War Besides Gran Turismo, but however the God of War series, Uncharted Series, LBP series, and Killzone series are getting closer. It is evident now that the PS3 when compared to Xbox 360 has a larger volume of exclusive titles, however they do not yet match the popularity of some of the big name Xbox 360 exclusives. I honestly cannot look at the PS3 and put their identity to one or two exclusive titles. I may say GT, but to me their identity is clouded by a handful of somewhat popular titles. If you would have asked me last Gen I would have said Final Fantasy, GT, and GTA. But now Final Fantasy and GTA are multiplat. If you were to ask me what popular casual games PS3 has I would barely be able to name a few. If you were to ask a mom of a PS3 owner she may say LBP, or Ratchet and Clank ( I may be forgetting one or two but you get my drift). If you were to ask a Mom of a Wii owner she could probably name at least 10. Now if you as a Mom of a X360/Kinect owner she could probably name at least 5. PS3 seems almost exclusively hardcore to me, and dosn't seem to really be pushing to capture any type of casual market, which in the end I think hurts their potential somewhat. They already have a huge following of hardcore gamers and I would argue its probably more than X360. But even though they may think they offer somethign to the Casual gamer, its not enough to get them to buy their system in a large quantity.
So in large part I do agree with the OP on this analysis, but with my take on a few things.