Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

[Sri Lumpa]

greenmedic88 said:

Sri Lumpa said:

greenmedic88 said:


Estimate 360 and PS3 sales to be a minimum of 15 and 8 million respectively for 23 million (lower than the actual total based on current weekly sales) combined.

To obtain 50% of the market, the PS3 and 360 have to sell 17 million units combined in 2008. Less, if the Wii is supposed to exceed 50% of the overall market.

Does that sound in any way shape or form reasonable?

[...]

I wouldn't say that's unreasonable, more like virtually impossible.

Huh?!?

You seem ignorant of the fact that the 360 launched in november '05 and had therefore a bit over two years to sell these 15.5-16 millions which means an average of about 7.5 millions a year... just like the PS3 (8.5-9 millions is for 14 months) for a total of 15 millions a year, with a big chunk of these sales stacked in the last two months.

So even if the Wii does not increase production they still would have enough (21.6) to get to 50% marketshare (15 millions + 5.6 millions difference = 20.6).

Now there are more factors like the 360/PS3 selling more this year with GTA4/MGS4 or the Wii possibly selling less (an opinion widely held by PS3 fans for more than a year now) but calling it virtually impossible is laughable at best.

Of course you made a mistake in your yearly sales numbers but now that you have been corrected maybe you might want to reconsider your statement*.

* assuming you see this post as your post is dated from 2 weeks ago. :)

No, my opinion hasn't changed. The Wii sold 16 million and change this year (from 12/31/06 to 12/30/07). So now we have a lot of people predicting growth of up to 50% (assuming 24 million in sales for 2008) and more in some extreme cases.

With about 25 million combined sales for the 360 and PS3 currently compared to about 20 million for the Wii, projecting a very optimistic 45 million by year's end means sales of the 360 and PS3 will have to stay at about 20 million combined. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Assume 360 sales stay flat at about 8 million. And assume PS3 sales defy the current change in the rate of sales since November (due to the price drop) and mirror 2007 sales of about 7.5 million. Next, assume no drop in price for the 360 in 2008. Do the same for the PS3.

Now I can see Nintendo gaining 50% of the market.

What I don't see are all of the above happening in order for that 50% number to become reality.

I could be wrong, and 2008 could be nothing but expansion for Nintendo while MS and Sony remain static, but this would defy conventional logic. Not fan logic, but the regular kind.

I doubt that Wii will sell 50% more in 08 but 30-40% more is doable (the former without production increase, the latter with production increase) though not guaranteed (depends on when demand is met in America/Japan).

Where I feel that your analysis is unrealistic is when you assume that the 360 will increase 100% this year (from around 8M to around 16M) as it is much less likely than the Wii increasing 50%.

I believe that around 10M for each of PS3 and 360 (one a bit higher and the other a bit lower so maybe 9M-11M or 11M-9M) is generous but possible with GTA4 and MGS4 for a total of 20M. This would still put it high enough that the Wii would not sell more than them enough to have 50% markeshare but it would put it quite close, hence why saying that it is impossible ofr the Wii to have 50% markeshare in 08 is unrealistic.

I personally think it might get it at some point in the year and then lose it during the holiday season but it is not guaranteed; or, if either of PS3/360 underperforms it might get it and keep it but that is even less likely.

I am NOT saying it will get it easily and keep it easily but I am saying that calling it impossible is unrealistic, especially when your justification for it doing so is the 360's sales doubling year over year the year after the 360's biggest exclusive came out (Halo 3).

Edit: If GT5 comes out in 08 then it will not happen as it is the only series from las gen that sold around 15M games and even though it will be weakened by the PS3's markeshare it should move enough systems to make it sure the Wii doesn't attain 50%.