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greenmedic88 said:
Zucas said:
It's going to be difficult for Wii to accoplish this, as 360 will falter but PS3 will likely take up those sales. Wii will probably end up at about 40-45 million in sales by the end of 2008. 360 will likely be around 24 million and PS3 around 20 million. So Wii would definetly have to hit that max of 45 million, which is unlikely, but possible. But Wii in its lifetime may never be able to get 50%, unless of course PS3 doesn't take over 360's increases in America, as the 360 falters.

Nintendo will not be seeing 45 million in sales (or even over 41 million) because they can't sell inventory that won't exist.

Once again: 19.153 million units from initial release through Dec 30th 2007.
Add 1.8 million x 12 = 21.6 million sold for the year of 2008 for a total of 40.753 million by Dec 30th 2008.

That number is set in stone contingent upon two simple projections.
1) Wii sells out through 2008.

2) Nintendo changes its policy on production (1.8 million/month).

"Ultimately, Wii production numbers -- and the United States' allocation of consoles -- are determined by Nintendo's home office in Kyoto, Japan. Harrison says the company will continue producing 1.8 million Wiis every month until demand subsides."

Assuming that Nintenod will not increase production from a level that has them already sold out is well silly.  If current demand shows that you are in shortages with your current supply then the only way to end it is increasing supply and production.  If you don't do that then you will continue to sellout.  Making what you stated physically impossible.  If they don't increase production then they'll continue to sellout and won't outstrip demand.  You have no logic in your presentation.

For NIntendo to outstrip demand by Summer 2008, which I agree upon and have been stating since about Summer 2007 when they would outstrip demand, they need to increase production to make it possible.  Probably somewhere in early 2008 they'll increase production to 2 million a month, and this will be allow them to outstrip demand by Summer 2008.  They'll continue that production until about August 2008, where they'll once again increase to help have enough supply for the holidays.  Remember in the earlly part of the year we are still leveling off from holidays meaning sales will be on a downard slope, then in the mid part of the year we are at our lowest until later in the year we are on high againg.  Sales work on a cosine wave basically.  So here's how shipments will probably work each month:

January- 1.8 million

February- 1.8 million

March- 2.0 million(normally as the fiscal year ends you increase production so that it shows in your finance reports)

April- 2.0 million

May- 2.0 million

June- 2.0 million

July- 2.0 million

August- 2.2 milion(normally in one of the summer months they increase for holidays, but during the entire summer and earlier months starting with April stockpiling is occuring)

September- 2.2 million

October- 2.2 million

November- 2.2 million

December- 2.2 million 

Total-  24.6 million

This is why I stated that the 45 million would be very difficult to get as this is the most likely course of action Nintendo will make, which many have agreed upon, including the Source in his idea of 2008 sales for Wii.  You first of all assumed that 1.8 million would be shipped throughout the entire year.  Which is simply ludacris unless from month 1, Wii sales are on a decline and stay that way for the entire year.  Then your 1.8 million a month theory might be possible.  But there is no evidence to even suggest that at least until after Summer 2008.  I've already discussed that for NIntendo to outstrip supply, they ahve to increase production.  Remember not all produced are actually shipped.  Stockpiling takes place throughout the entire year.  Just more so during the summer months because this is the time when you sell the least, which is why its the most likely time supply will outstrip demand.

My month to month production number which will most likely have a 95% of them shipped, gives a more realistic standpoint on Nintendo's scenario for 2008.  It takes into account especially the holiday season, where NIntendo will tyr its best to meet an inevitable increase in demand to the point where it'll probably sellout again in those months.  DS is an example where this is true.  The only time we'd see your scenario take place, is if supply and demand have met a nice medium, like we see with the DS.  We know Wii has not met this with the current 1.8 million a month.  

Thus I think actual sales for the Wii by the end of 2008 will be anywhere from 40-45 million, depending on how many they are able to get out, how many was actually shipped by the end of 07, the effects of Wii Fit, SSBB, and MK Wii, and of course if Wii is able to still have the same dominant brandname throughout the entire year and increased at holiday times as it did in Q4 07.