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Honestly, you're (probably) not going to see any of the console manufacturers leave the industry any time soon; from how it looks currently, I would expect that each of the consoles will sell at least 20 or 30 Million units before it is time for another generation. One thing that could hurt Sony and Microsoft is that neither company has strong enough first-party development to float a platform on their own; if third party developers decide to reduce support for "High Definition" systems in favour of the Wii this will have a greater impact on Sony and Microsoft then if third party developers reduce support for the Wii in favour of "High-Definition" systems.