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@Bod

The time it takes for an industry to form around a company would depend upon the turnaround rate for the products, the amount of time that such products will have to prove their performance, the amount of capital each product takes as a % of the company revenue, as well as the cycle time for reinvestment of results from the previous generation.

Such industry changes is typically measured in generations of product iterations. Since it takes about 2-3 yrs for games to be released, ~1 yr for sale results, and since game production takes a significant portion of the entire company operating income (most companies can only develop 1-3 big budget games at one time), I would estimate 2-4 generations of the product cycle.

What this means is that it may take actually several years to happen. Companies can always go into debt to fund constantly unprofitable games and last for a while. Look at how long Midway and Atari are still around even though they have virtually no real success in a long time. It'll likely take till the end of this generation I'm guessing.