Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
Michael-5 said:
ethomaz said:
| Michael-5 said:
I know your prediction for GT5, it's not that different then mine 9.4 versus 10 million? I think the real arguement is will it be a 10 million seller?
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It will be... 10 million for me is almost certain with these inital sales.
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With these initial sales it's more likely it won't make 10 million. On a weekly basis it's underperforming GT4. Last week GT5 only sold 66% as well as GT4, and in the long run GT4 just crossed 10 million. Yes GT5 did benefit from the holidays and did outpace GT4 for a little bit at the start, but now that the holigay is over GT5 is crashing.
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Just some weeks performing below GT4... GT4 will begun to sell sub 30k soon and GT5 not.
GT5 will sell more than 10 million lifetime.
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You have to follow the trend GT5 is setting. Yes GT5 outsold GT4 by about 200k in the first 8 weeks, but GT5 was launched in the holidays. A game like GT4 peaked week 1 then very slowly went down in sales since it was released in February. GT5 peaked, leveled pretty high during the holidays, and now sales are crashing. Of the last 3 weeks GT4 has outsold GT5 and the gap is growing. At this rate GT5 is only looking to pick up 1.5-2.5 million more sales for 2011, and after that it will probably have insignificant gains.
GT5 sales are already only at 60k weekly, and falling pretty fast. Not to mention in a couple months all game/console sales will be half of what they are now as those are dryer months in sales. So no matter what GT5 will fall sub 30k weekly sales in a couple months. GT4 on the other hand took about 25 weeks to drop sales down to 30k, and then the holidays hit and slightly GT4 sales (GT4's first holiday season).
Your free to beleive what you'd like, but I'd suggest take weekly sales and plot them in excel. You will see the trends racing games like GT4 and Forza 3 set, and you will see that without bundling, GT5 is not going to make 10 million.
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Considering the way GT5 is stabilizing 30K is not an unheard of weekly sales for a while.
