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Immortal said:

Well, by now, the industry would have collapsed and Sony and MS would be playing "Who Pulls the Plug on Video Games First?" in the home console market, with most notable third parties bankrupt.

Don't think that you are too far off.  If you eliminated the majority of the Wii's sales and all of the Media support for the gaming community, you would be seeing top end sales of something like this:

Wii - 25M

360 - 55M

PS3 - 50M

 

I think the Wii pushed all of the consoles up, and the Kinect/Move will ride its back to push the 360/PS3 up too(just not as much).