GT5 vs Forza 3: GT5 will?

[Alby_da_Wolf]

Michael-5 said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Michael-5 said:

[...]

Forza Motorsport 3 week 1 sales were 470,692 according to VGChartz

http://www.vgchartz.com/game.php?id=30434

If your using weekly sales ending October 24th, 2009, then of course Forza Motorsport 3 only sold 246,536 units, but this was before the game was even released in Americas, and only accounts for 2 days of EMEAA sales, and 3 days of Japanese sales.

If your blatently going to ignore Americas week 1 regional sales simply because the game came out a week later in Americas, thats just making an unfair comparision.

Fine for me. Also consoles should be compared launch-aligned, then.

But, how will you know exactly how many copies get included in the console bundle?

Also speaking of bundles, GT5 will be bundled with the console at launch, and in Japan they get that damn sexy blue PS3. My prediction for 1.5-1.8 million units is for non-bundled units.

Bundled copies aren't trackable precisely, unless manufacturers or developers release their data.

About your prediction, I don't know, GT4 did around 40% better than that with a starting user base twice as bigger, but for GT3 we have weekly data only for Japan, and just there it did more than 550k 1st week with a PS2 user base in Japan that was just ~4.4M, while now PS3 is 5.7 there, and what's more, PS2 WW was around 11M when they launched GT3 in the rest of the world, while PS3 is more than 38M WW now.

I guess also that the choice of the new launch date could change GT5 first week quite wildly, a reliable prediction is almost impossible.