Quantcast
View Post
WereKitten said:
d21lewis said:
360 has higher attach rate

True, but not that important. Attach rate goes up with time as console owners of old accumulate games, and the 360 had a full year-to-fifteen months headstart over the PS3. Putting in a few numbers we can calculate the average number of games bought per console per week of ownership, calculated as 2*attach ratio/weeks:

AMERICA

360
November 22nd, 2005    225w        10.76  ->     0.095 sales/(console*week)
PS3
November 17th, 2006    175w        8.78    ->     0.100 sales/(console*week)

TOTAL OTHERS:

360
December 2nd, 2005    224w        5.96    ->    0.053 sales/(console*week)
PS3
March 23rd, 2007         156w        6.12    ->    0.078 sales/(console*week)

JAPAN:

360
December 10th, 2005    223w        5.29   ->     0.047 sales/(console*week)
PS3
November 11th, 2006    176w        3.91   ->    0.044 sales/(console*week)

 

If I publish a new game today, this number is more relevant to project future sales for each region and platform than the "naked" attach rate, again because the attach rate is an historic total but not an estimate of the current sale speed. The numbers show that on average I can expect slightly better future sales per install base console on the PS3 in America, and quite better in Others. In the end the conclusion is that if sales are lower then you'd better blame the install base than the like of attach or tie ratios.

NB: this number is -of course- an incredibly rough average over all software sales, especially useless when we talk of big hitting exclusives, but still not more so that the attach rate and actually more statistically meaningful.

That post of mine is probably the most quoted thing I've ever posted.......but yesterday morning, I wasn't quite myself.  I made a few posts that didn't really have much thought behind them at all........



Twitter: @d21lewis  --I'll add you if you add me!!