| Impulsivity said: This is why I think the future of gaming is the apple side of things and not Android. There is the iphone starter kit (the ipod touch) which is more or less the same as the iphone minus the calls. Then theres the iphone and now theres the ipad which can easily be ported to if you've already made an iphone game. This gets you in at all price points and avoids the contract and phone bill problems that keep those 13 and under out of the high end phone market. There is also a big weakness to Android, it has no real central phone or platform or spec. This means that if you develop a game for the Droid there is no guarantee it will work on the upcoming phones from Sony or with older phones like the G1. Developers can patch the games and programs for now because there aren't that many programs and there aren't that many platforms but as both programs they have to support and android platforms grow exponentially the way there are no standards will become more and more of a problem. This huge discrepancy between phones, especially in terms of power, is part of why iphone and ipod touch games (and especially ipad games) look loads better then Android titles. Nova, Need for Speed Shift, Street Fighter 4 and Real Racing HD look amazing. Android games tend to not look as good and lag pretty badly especially if you don't have the exact phone the game was designed for. The ipod touch/iphone platform will really be the next big thing I'm reasonably sure especially once gamecenter gets going and Apple pushes the gaming platform thing harder. There is a HUGE billboard in Vegas across from the Wynn where I was staying last time I went a month ago and it non stop has this Apple commercial of great looking games in a montage and the games look at least as good as anything on the PS2 much less PSP (with the exception of a few late titles like God of War 2). Right now the ipod touch+iphone platform sold over 75 million devices by January of this year and should be over 100 million by midyear even without counting ipad sales. It's not impossible for the iphone platform to overtake the DS in total sales by the end of the year by hitting 150 million first. The platform went from 50 million in Sept 2009 to 75 million in January so at that rate of increase (100% year over year) its not impossible to see 150 million worldwide within the realm of possibility. Yes not all of these are sales to gamers, but as Reggie from Nintendo used to like pointing out a lot of non gamers bought the DS too. Anyone remember the pretty bad E3 of last year where he kept showing how mom friendly the DS was? I wouldn't be surprised if game sales on non gaming dedicated platforms weren't higher then on dedicated platforms like the PSP and DS by 2012 or 2013 at the latest. Alternately the android platform has sold a total of about 10 million phones (or the amount of iphones sold in a quarter) and doesn't have a non phone counterpart that shares the OS and apps like the iphone. Until there is an android touch and some better quality hardware with more consistency I don't really see Android as the future of gaming any time soon. It is pretty hard to break out how many people get Android just to avoid ATT (and would otherwise buy an iphone) but I have to guess its a decent share of Verizon Droid customers. I can only hope a big V iphone comes soon. |
First off, I really repsect your opinion. You have a lot of great thoughts on the smartphone wars, and have thought them out.
However, I do have some disagreements:
Impulsivity said:
This is why I think the future of gaming is the apple side of things and not Android. There is the iphone starter kit (the ipod touch) which is more or less the same as the iphone minus the calls. Then theres the iphone and now theres the ipad which can easily be ported to if you've already made an iphone game. This gets you in at all price points and avoids the contract and phone bill problems that keep those 13 and under out of the high end phone market.
Android has actually had tablets for a long time. Archos has had multiple types available running Android. Other tablets are coming out, and will feature many different things which give them a lot of variance with form factors.
As for the low-end product like the iPod, I agree there isn't a device out there....Yet. That is the key. Like the iPod MP3 player many years ago, it took a little while for others to come out with knock-offs which took a nice little share of the market away from Apple. Likewise, companies will roll out touchscreen iPod Touch ripoffs. The caveat with them is the market, so its only safe to assume that they will begin to adopt another OS, which would likely be Android. Although that is speculation, I'd imagine it'll happen in the next year or two. Zii was/is supposed to come out with an Android-based uber-pod for ~$200 with the same specs as an iPhone 3GS, but I haven't seen enough to make a definitive note on it yet.
There is also a big weakness to Android, it has no real central phone or platform or spec. This means that if you develop a game for the Droid there is no guarantee it will work on the upcoming phones from Sony or with older phones like the G1. Developers can patch the games and programs for now because there aren't that many programs and there aren't that many platforms but as both programs they have to support and android platforms grow exponentially the way there are no standards will become more and more of a problem.
Very true. However, the same can be said for older 1st-gen iPhones and iPod touches being unable to run high-end iPhone games. Its not as severe, but it does exist.
Having said that, developers will have to choose which platform they want - a more closed one, or a more open one with a much larger (likely) userbase. Lets not forget that devs can simply make multiple versions of a game for different OS versions...Or simply make a game that will work on everything. 2 examples are Farm Frenzy which has multiple versions, and the other being Robo Defense. Both have sold real well on Android.
This huge discrepancy between phones, especially in terms of power, is part of why iphone and ipod touch games (and especially ipad games) look loads better then Android titles. Nova, Need for Speed Shift, Street Fighter 4 and Real Racing HD look amazing. Android games tend to not look as good and lag pretty badly especially if you don't have the exact phone the game was designed for.
I would disagree that is the reason as to why games aren't as good on Android. The real reason is that developers haven't focused on Android very much, due to it being much smaller...There isn't as much money in Android (yet) so they aren't trying.
The ipod touch/iphone platform will really be the next big thing I'm reasonably sure especially once gamecenter gets going and Apple pushes the gaming platform thing harder. There is a HUGE billboard in Vegas across from the Wynn where I was staying last time I went a month ago and it non stop has this Apple commercial of great looking games in a montage and the games look at least as good as anything on the PS2 much less PSP (with the exception of a few late titles like God of War 2).
Certainly agree that the iPhone is going to be the next big thing. I'm just thinking more in the 5+ year timespan, and not the 1-5 like what the iPhone is set to do great in. Right now, we're in the PC-Apple-Commodore battle of the 80s. We're at that point that closed systems dominate. However, I believe that will change in a few years.
Right now the ipod touch+iphone platform sold over 75 million devices by January of this year and should be over 100 million by midyear even without counting ipad sales. It's not impossible for the iphone platform to overtake the DS in total sales by the end of the year by hitting 150 million first. The platform went from 50 million in Sept 2009 to 75 million in January so at that rate of increase (100% year over year) its not impossible to see 150 million worldwide within the realm of possibility.
I agree that it should see great sales this year. However, lets not forget that the iPhone does have 2 great weaknesses:
- Its limited by carrier. In the US, its on AT&T. Comparatively, WinMo, BB and Android are on all 4. That is a much bigger piece of the pie than what the iPhone has the potential for.
- Its limited by form factor. Not everyone likes phones without keyboards. Apple will not (or at least is very unlikely to) make a slider, flip, or other device....Android has, and will in the future.
Yes not all of these are sales to gamers, but as Reggie from Nintendo used to like pointing out a lot of non gamers bought the DS too. Anyone remember the pretty bad E3 of last year where he kept showing how mom friendly the DS was? I wouldn't be surprised if game sales on non gaming dedicated platforms weren't higher then on dedicated platforms like the PSP and DS by 2012 or 2013 at the latest.
Agree here. I think we'll see the iPhone rival DS software revenue in about 3 years, and Android rival the iPhone in about 5.
Alternately the android platform has sold a total of about 10 million phones (or the amount of iphones sold in a quarter) and doesn't have a non phone counterpart that shares the OS and apps like the iphone. Until there is an android touch and some better quality hardware with more consistency I don't really see Android as the future of gaming any time soon. It is pretty hard to break out how many people get Android just to avoid ATT (and would otherwise buy an iphone) but I have to guess its a decent share of Verizon Droid customers. I can only hope a big V iphone comes soon.
Lets not forget that there are a lot of other kinds of phone buyers out there - business professionals, texters, people that don't care, ect. There are a lot of people out there that won't buy an iPhone or a smartphone in general just because they are cost-prohibitive. About 85% of all phones sold are featurephones or dumbphones. The thing about that, is that featurephones always get more....Features...And dumbphones get smarter. Eventually, these phones will become less balkanized and adopt central OS platforms as opposed to the horrendous ways they work now. I believe that when that comes, Android will be in the best position, as its really just between it, WinMo and Symbian for cross-manufacturer abilities.
When that happens - and I believe that will be in about 3-4 years - Android will sell really well, as Apple's marketshare really isn't that large when you look at the BIG picture. There are 1 billion phones sold a year. What happens when these billion phones must have a central market place? It can't be iTunes, because Apple won't sell it to others.
That is where I see Apple take a backseat to Android. Yes, its about 5-6 years in the future, but I see this like Mac vs. the PC in the early 90s. In the end, weather we like it or not, consumers and manufacturers prefer the model that can be custom suited to their needs. That is not the iPhone. That is not the iPhone by a long shot.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
