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CGI-Quality said:
It's possible. Then again, this gen has proven time and time again that userbase doesn't always dictate the end result. This is the first Gran Turismo (full title) of the gen and it's been immensely anticipated since 2005. Whether or not some of those people gave up waiting remains to be seen.

God of War III & MGS4 are just a few examples of userbases not being any final indicator of potential sales, or lack thereof. I think GT5 will sell a good 1.1-1.5mill first week and end off with a modest 9-10mill.

As far as MGS and GOW go, they were never huge franchises in the first place, there was always room for growth, I don't think the GOWIII/MGS4 selling more argument holds any water as far as GT5 is concerned, imo of course

Logically, of course it should be the lowest selling, I know we hear about userbase not mattering, and it most cases it doesnt, but if you had a PS2/PS1, you HAD to have a GT game, I don't think PS3 has the same fans in it's userbase anymore, there were a lot of casual PS2 people that bought GT.

 

I reckon it'll do 8 -10, Halo and MW2 have proved a game can do those sales on that kind of userbase, the only reason I don't think it'll do as well as previous games, is that I just don't think racing games are that big anymore.