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While DLC won't kill physical media, expect it to start taking a healthy bite out of the marketplace.


Most analysts say that HDTV adoption won't even reach 50% until 2011. That means that Apple, MS, and others have at least four years to start squaring away their codecs and waiting for connection speeds to improve. Besides, downloadable HD will probably be in 720p for quite some time and while that is lower than what you get from Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, it's still good enough for most people out there and they would probably never notice the difference.

Ultimately, there will always be physical media. But its market is going to continue to dwindle as time passes. I don't even buy DVDs anymore. I use HBO On-Demand, my 360, and iTunes to get almost all of the content I want in my home. I used to use Netflix but ran out of movies to watch (after about 5000 rated). This is from someone who used to purchase at least one DVD a month, often times several in a month. I last purchased one about six months ago and have purchased maybe three in the past year and a half.



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