Michael Pachter predicts PS3 will win this round of console wars

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theshoe23 said:
Ok, for the last time, downloadable movies will NOT become the standard for high definition films in the time it would take for one of the existing HD disc formats to become a standard. There will be an increased adoption of HDTVs in the next year or so and eventually HDTVs will be all that are left (to buy). So if your TV dies you will HAVE to get an HDTV to replace it. This increase in HDTV adoption will cause an increase in HD movies. HD Movies ARE HUGE! That is why they are stored on HD-DVD or Blu-ray discs. Their capacities are measured in double digit gigabytes! At the current rate high speed internet adoption. There will still be a substantial part of the worlds population that are limited to cable modem speeds (as many are limited by slow dsl or even dial up at present). This speed (while fast - around 2.5 to 5 mbps) is still too slow to make downloading a movie more convenient than a trip to the video store. Just try starting to download a movie on the 360 right before you want watch it. The sun will come up before its done!

I think by downloadable content they usually mean downloadable and streaming video. But you're right about that connection speeds will not be at the level for years, that HD requires, unless data comes with high compression and is decompressed "on the run". But if streaming video can hit the market even on SD, it will still eat HD-video discs sales. Basically every TV channel have internet broadcasts even today, the problem is that you need a computer to watch them and people are not used to watch TV from computer. But if you can use hub which is connected to TV, it's a lot different thing. Oh, and not to mention HD broadcast through satellite, and someday even terrestial, for example Canal+ have its kiosk, through satellite, a pay per view service, which uses "streaming data" and you can watch any movie you like, whenever you like.