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I'm not sure we can take Pacter or any other anylst that seriously right now. It's early in the console cycle and no one has a crystal ball. I do agree with him that the 360 will come in last place so long as Blue Ray wins the format war. And if you read the article he does contend it would be a disaster for Sony if HD-DVD won. I think he's probably also right in saying the Wii will have a dominant period of a few years before subsiding. In the end though you really can't predict what any of these three will be positioned five years from now. Honestly combined 200 million of the big three will be sold by 2011? I really don't know about that.