Carl2291 said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Last generation PS2 + XBox + GC was somewhere around 185 million I think.
Considering that the Wii and PS3 came out at the same time and the Wii has consistently sold over twice as much, if the PS3 sells 100 million, the Wii will be at about 210 million at the absolute least, and the Xbox360 will probably be close to the PS3 at 90 - 110 million. This would make the total of all 3 systems 410 million. That would make this generation 220% bigger than last generation. The 2nd and 3rd place consoles will be doing about 5 times better than the XBox and GC?
Yes this generation will last longer than last generation, and is much bigger thanks to the market expansion, and the 2nd and 3rd places are doing much much better than usual. But at some point, everybody but the market leader slows down.
I just don't see any of this happening. There just isn't room for a 2nd or 3rd place console to sell 100 million units. It'll be easier for the Wii to sell 200 million than for the PS3 to sell 100 million, but I'm not even sure if that's going to happen (depends on how slow the Wii burns out over the next 5-8 years). The market is a lot bigger for the Wii and the casuals and women and old people and monkey butlers and whatever, but the hardcore isn't 5 times bigger than it was a few years ago. |
The only problem is, and it's a long shot...
What if the Wii successor is out either this year or next? Sony and MS have both stated how they want this gen to last for a long, long time so i doubt we will see anything from them for a few years yet, especially if Natal and Arc both sell moderately well.
Nintendo have constant rumor's of new hardware being revealed, and don't seem to talk about how long they want the Wii to be on sale for (i haven't seen anything anyway).
It could severely drop Wii sales as Nintendo focus on the Wii2, and could keep Wii from hitting PS2-like numbers.
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that seems inconcievable!
Why would the fastest selling gaming system ever, possibly consumer electronics product ever get a successor before its competitors
Expect to a see DSi type successor with possibly a built in hard drive & so on
but I simply cannot believe a wii2 can be a year or two away or that it will release before PS360's next gen system
